Anchoring

Estimation biases biases

Anchoring is when the first number or fact you hear shapes your later judgments more than it should. Your mind uses that initial value as a reference and adjusts only slightly from it, instead of weighing new information on its own. That can distort estimates of price, risk, or quantity in shopping, negotiations, and everyday decisions.

Examples

  • A shop shows "Was £200, now £80." You judge it as a good deal because £200 anchored you, even if similar items are often sold for £70 elsewhere.

  • A news report says "up to 10,000 people may be affected." You later remember the situation as large-scale, even when the actual number turned out to be a few hundred.

  • In a salary negotiation, the first number mentioned—whether by you or the employer—tends to pull the final offer toward it, regardless of what the role is worth.