Confirmation bias

Hypothesis assessment biases biases

Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, and remember information in a way that confirms what we already believe. We give more weight to supporting evidence and discount or ignore evidence that contradicts our view. It can lock us into false beliefs and make us overconfident. Related: Anecdotal, Hasty generalization (cherry-picking evidence).

Examples

  • You believe a certain diet works, so you notice every success story and forget or explain away the people who tried it and saw no change.

  • You think a political leader is effective, so you focus on their achievements and downplay or dismiss their failures.

  • After buying a car, you notice more of the same model on the road and take that as confirmation you made a popular choice, rather than as a shift in attention.

  • You search for articles that support your view on a controversial topic and avoid or quickly dismiss sources that argue the opposite.

  • A manager believes an employee is underperforming and interprets every ambiguous incident as evidence of that, while overlooking signs of improvement.

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