Dunning–Kruger effect

Estimation biases biases

The Dunning–Kruger effect is when people with little skill in an area overestimate their ability, and people with a lot of skill tend to underestimate theirs. When you know very little, you don't see what you're missing; when you know a lot, you see how much there still is to learn. That can lead to overconfidence among beginners and unnecessary doubt among experts.

Examples

  • Someone who has just started learning guitar is very confident they could perform in public; an experienced player is more cautious about their readiness.

  • A new driver thinks they are better than average and takes risks; a seasoned driver is more aware of how much can go wrong.

  • After a short online course on investing, you feel ready to pick stocks, while professional investors are often more hesitant about predicting markets.

  • A junior employee is sure their idea will transform the company; senior staff who have seen many failed initiatives are more reserved.

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