Gambler's fallacy

The gambler's fallacy is the belief that past random events influence future ones—for example, that after a run of one outcome, the other is "due." With independent events, like fair coin flips or roulette spins, the past does not change the next outcome. It is the same idea as the logical fallacy of the same name: one describes the mental tendency, the other the argument that uses it. Often discussed as a logical fallacy under Cause. Related: Gambler's fallacy (Cause).

Examples

• The coin has come up heads five times, so tails is due next.

• After a long dry spell, you assume rain is more likely soon, even though weather is not a simple game of catch-up.

• A basketball player has missed several shots, so you think their next shot is more likely to go in, instead of treating each shot as independent.

• The lottery numbers have not included a 7 for weeks, so you pick 7 thinking it is "due," even though each draw is independent.

• You have had several bad job interviews in a row and feel the next one must go well, as if luck were balancing out.