Hindsight bias

Causal attribution biases biases

In the recall sense, hindsight bias is when we reshape our memory of the past to fit what we now know. We remember having known or predicted more than we actually did. That can make us overconfident in our judgment and unfair to ourselves or others about past uncertainty. This overlaps with the causal-attribution sense of hindsight bias and with the fallacy of retrospective determinism. Related: Retrospective determinism.

Examples

  • You recall having been sure the project would fail, when in fact you were uncertain and only became "sure" after it failed.

  • After a team wins, fans remember having had strong faith in the team all along, forgetting the anxiety and doubt before the game.

  • You remember "always knowing" a friendship would not last, even though at the time you had no such certainty.

  • A doctor recalls having had a clear early suspicion of a rare diagnosis, when the notes show they considered many other possibilities first.

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