Illusion of control

Causal attribution biases biases

The illusion of control is when we overestimate how much we can influence outcomes that are largely down to chance or external factors. We believe our actions matter more than they do, so we may take credit for good luck or blame ourselves for bad luck, or repeat superstitious behaviors that have no real effect.

Examples

  • You think that pressing the lift button repeatedly will make it arrive faster, or that wearing a "lucky" item affects the result of a game of chance.

  • A manager believes that their detailed oversight is why a project succeeded, when much of the outcome was due to market conditions and team skill.

  • You choose your own lottery numbers instead of taking random ones, feeling that your choice somehow affects the draw.

  • A coach attributes a win to their pre-match team talk, when the result may have been mostly determined by the relative strength of the teams.

  • You avoid stepping on cracks or perform a ritual before an important event, as if that could influence an outcome that is largely random or already determined by other factors.

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