Illusory correlation

Hypothesis assessment biases biases

Illusory correlation is when we perceive a relationship between two events or traits when there is none, or when the relationship is much weaker than we think. We remember co-occurrences that fit our expectations and forget the rest. This tendency underlies why we commit the fallacies of post hoc and false cause—we perceive cause where there is none. Related: Post hoc, False cause.

Examples

  • You assume that rainy days always happen when you have outdoor plans, because those days stand out; you don't count the many rainy days when you had no plans.

  • You link a child's tantrum to eating sugar, because the times they had sugar and then misbehaved are memorable; you don't track the times they had sugar and were fine.

  • A manager attributes a team's success to a new process, ignoring that similar teams improved without that process and that other factors could explain the result.

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