Proportionality bias

Causal attribution biases biases

Proportionality bias is when we expect big effects to have big causes. When something dramatic happens, we look for a dramatic explanation—a conspiracy, a single villain, or a major event—instead of accepting that complex or mundane causes, or chance, can produce large outcomes. That can fuel conspiracy theories and oversimplified narratives.

Examples

  • A major political event is explained as the result of a secret plot, rather than the interplay of many factors and chance.

  • A celebrity's sudden death is attributed to foul play or a cover-up, when the cause may be a rare but natural condition.

  • A market crash is blamed on one institution or one decision, when it was the result of many interacting factors.

  • A company's success is credited to its charismatic founder, downplaying market timing, team, and luck.

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