False cause

Informal fallacies → Cause

False cause (cum hoc ergo propter hoc—"with this, therefore because of this") is when two things happen together or one after the other and you conclude one caused the other, even though they might both be caused by something else or the link might be coincidence. Correlation isn't causation. The cognitive bias of illusory correlation describes the tendency to perceive cause where there is none. To avoid the fallacy, consider other explanations and whether a third factor could explain both. Related: Illusory correlation.

Examples

  • Ice cream sales go up in summer and so do drownings. So ice cream causes drownings.

  • Countries that eat more chocolate have more Nobel prizes. So chocolate makes you smarter.

  • Our sales fell when we changed the logo. So the new logo caused the drop.

← Back to Fallacies