Gambler's fallacy

Informal fallacies → Cause

The gambler's fallacy is when you think that because something hasn't happened for a while, it's "due" to happen—or the other way round. With random, independent events, the past doesn't change the next outcome. Coins and dice don't remember; each trial is separate. The same idea appears as a cognitive bias: we tend to treat independent events as if they were dependent. The fallacy is to use the recent run of outcomes as evidence for the next one when they're independent. Related: Gambler's fallacy (cognitive bias).

Examples

  • The coin has come up heads five times, so tails is due next.

  • It hasn't rained for weeks, so it's bound to rain soon.

  • We've had three reds in a row on the roulette wheel, so black is due.

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