Retrospective determinism

Retrospective determinism is when you look back at what happened and treat it as if it had to happen—as if it was the only possible outcome. In hindsight, things often look inevitable even when at the time they weren't. We forget the uncertainty and the other paths that were live options. The same idea appears as the cognitive bias known as hindsight bias. The fallacy is to project necessity onto the past when the future was open at the time. Related: Hindsight bias.

Examples

• It was obvious the project would fail once they hired her.

• You could see from the start that the relationship wouldn't last.

• The crash was inevitable given how they were lending.

• It was clear she would win the election.